Florida Restaurant Intelligence methods
Choose Detailed Stats to compare and sort all records in this report.
Florida Restaurant Intelligence connects official records, deterministic calculations, model forecasts, and reviewed editorial findings without presenting them as the same kind of evidence.
License delinquency and ownership changes are separate signals. Neither alone proves that a restaurant has closed.
Evidence taxonomy
| Official record | A direct DBPR or Sunbiz status, inspection, filing, or action. |
| RiskyEats calculation | A deterministic calculation from cited official records, with scope, period, numerator, and denominator. |
| Model forecast | A probabilistic output with an as-of date, model version, uncertainty, and known limitations. |
| Editorial finding | A reviewed interpretation supported by linked evidence and subject to the correction policy. |
Metric dictionary
| Emergency-order recommendation | inspection disposition count | stated report window | An official DBPR inspection outcome; it is not the same as a permanent closure. |
| DBPR 45/46 status | license count or share | as-of date shown | A delinquent or inactive regulatory status, not automatic proof that the storefront closed. |
| Inspection-pattern anomaly | peer-relative analytical band | stated observation window | A record outside its comparison range and a lead for review, not a violation finding. |
| Closure-pressure forecast | calibrated probability | 90-day model horizon | A model estimate, not an official status or guaranteed outcome. |
Closure-pressure model card
| Objective | Prioritize aggregate closure-pressure research and reviewed case leads. |
| Excluded use | Do not treat a forecast as an official closure, food-safety determination, credit decision, or unreviewed accusation. |
| Outcome horizon | 90 days. |
| Training window | 2014-01-01 through 2024-12-31 snapshots by default; 2025 is reserved for drift review, not nightly fitting |
| Holdout strategy | stratified random holdout within training cohort |
| Training rows | 15,444 training rows; 1,188 positive (7.7% base rate); 3,861 holdout (297 positive) |
| AUC | 0.704871385006065 |
| Brier score | 0.06656307095328352 |
| Calibration error | 0.016698468910737455 |
| Top-decile precision | 28.7% |
| False-positive rate at 0.50 | 0.0% |
| Missing data | No-inspection and unresolved-identity records are excluded from named publication. |
| Publication status | Named-business forecasts withheld pending completed governance review. |
| Corrections | Email corrections@riskyeats.org with the license number and the discrepancy; see Contact & corrections on /disclosure.html. |
Data sources: FRI. Built from DBPR public inspection records, Florida Sunbiz business filings, and Foursquare/OSS location data. All counts are derived from public records — no estimates or projections unless labeled as forecast.