The six-month outlook is built on the Phase 2 ORSM baseline: 105,688 scored licenses distributed across four risk bands. 365 licenses score in the high-risk band (anomaly_score > 0.75), 4,767 in elevated (0.50–0.75), 14,184 in moderate (0.25–0.50), and 86,372 in low (< 0.25). But this edition is not a score table. The report reads the driver stack behind every named anomaly and explains why that license belongs on the desk's watch board.
The Phase 2 baseline is operator-tuned and explainable: severity_z, emergency-order counts, and ownership-change filings are not decorative fields. They are the factual spine of the editorial read — why the venue is abnormal, what kind of abnormality it is, and what the next reporting question should be.
TSE Anomaly Overlay
The TSE overlay adds signal-level anomaly context above the ORSM license baseline. These rows are current anomaly detections, not closure findings.
| TSE time-series anomaly | Tex-Mex (cuisine) | DBPR inspection severity-point activity per week, eligible cuisines | Comparison unavailable | 24 of 100 | 2026-10-26 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Pembroke Pines (city) | Foursquare-reported city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per week, eligible Florida cities | Comparison unavailable | 25 of 100 | 2026-10-12 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Escambia (county) | Foursquare-reported county DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per week, eligible Florida counties | Comparison unavailable | 23 of 100 | 2026-10-12 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Korean (cuisine) | DBPR inspection severity-point activity per quarter, eligible cuisines | Comparison unavailable | 24 of 100 | 2026-10-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Alachua (county) | Foursquare-reported county DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per month, eligible Florida counties | Comparison unavailable | 23 of 100 | 2026-10-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Pub (cuisine) | Foursquare-reported cuisine DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per week, top 30 eligible cuisines | Comparison unavailable | 23 of 100 | 2026-09-21 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Florida-Keys (metro) | DBPR emergency-order and closure events per 100,000 residents, per metro | Comparison unavailable | 25 of 100 | 2026-08-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Florida-Keys (metro) | DBPR emergency-order and closure events per 10,000 accommodation and food-service jobs, per metro | Comparison unavailable | 24 of 100 | 2026-08-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | West Palm Beach (city) | Foursquare-reported city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per month, eligible Florida cities | Comparison unavailable | 23 of 100 | 2026-08-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Statewide | FB/news scraped closure mentions per week | Comparison unavailable | 23 of 100 | 2026-07-06 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | D5 (district) | Inspector activity per month, per district | Comparison unavailable | 27 of 100 | 2026-06-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | American (cuisine) | Foursquare-reported cuisine DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per month, top 30 eligible cuisines | Comparison unavailable | 23 of 100 | 2026-06-01 |
TSE Forecast Overlay
The forecast overlay shows signal-level trajectories beside the ORSM outlook. Forecast rows are model projections and remain separate from public-record facts.
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=jacksonville | -0.000 | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=miami | +0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=tampa | -0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=orlando | +0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=kissimmee | -0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=new port richey | -0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=oviedo | -0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=sarasota | -0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=doral | -0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=fort myers | -0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=opa-locka | -0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=tallahassee | -0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Scenario Rollup — Elevated/High Concentration by Metro
The metro rollup answers where regulatory pressure is concentrating. Miami carries the highest concentration of elevated/high-band licenses at 2.0%, which means the forward-look is more uncertain there than in metros with thinner high-band stacks.
This is not a closure count. It is an aggregate of per-license anomaly scores — the same scores that power the per-license table above — rolled up to metro geography. A high concentration here means the model sees more individual licenses behaving outside their own historical norm, which the editorial desk reads as a pressure signal.
Metro-level ORSM band concentration
| Miami | 5785 | 113 | 2.0% | 113 of 5785 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Fort Lauderdale | 2632 | 55 | 2.1% | 55 of 2632 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| West Palm Beach | 2249 | 40 | 1.8% | 40 of 2249 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Port St. Lucie | 938 | 13 | 1.4% | 13 of 938 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Key West | 267 | 4 | 1.5% | 4 of 267 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Tampa | 6131 | 97 | 1.6% | 97 of 6131 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Orlando | 7892 | 135 | 1.7% | 135 of 7892 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Jacksonville | 2813 | 58 | 2.1% | 58 of 2813 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Fort Myers | 3777 | 80 | 2.1% | 80 of 3777 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Tallahassee | 4357 | 93 | 2.1% | 93 of 4357 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.
NIM Forecast Scenario Rollup
The NV-Tesseract Forecast NIM produced 24 metro×target forecast pairs for this semiannual edition. Each pair compares the last observed value against the forecast-horizon endpoint, labeled as a directional trend rather than a point estimate.
south-florida · severity_sum: 2152.0 → 1018.4, trend down 52.7% over the forecast horizon.
south-florida · eor_count: 3.0 → 3.6, trend up 19.5% over the forecast horizon.
south-florida · total_inspections: 219.0 → 109.9, trend down 49.8% over the forecast horizon.
tampa-bay · severity_sum: 900.0 → 349.8, trend down 61.1% over the forecast horizon.
tampa-bay · eor_count: 3.0 → 2.0, trend down 34.2% over the forecast horizon.
tampa-bay · total_inspections: 90.0 → 44.0, trend down 51.1% over the forecast horizon.
NIM forecast metro×target summary
| south-florida | severity_sum | 2152.0 | 1018.4 | down 52.7% |
| south-florida | eor_count | 3.0 | 3.6 | up 19.5% |
| south-florida | total_inspections | 219.0 | 109.9 | down 49.8% |
| tampa-bay | severity_sum | 900.0 | 349.8 | down 61.1% |
| tampa-bay | eor_count | 3.0 | 2.0 | down 34.2% |
| tampa-bay | total_inspections | 90.0 | 44.0 | down 51.1% |
| orlando | severity_sum | 457.0 | 266.1 | down 41.8% |
| orlando | eor_count | 1.0 | 0.9 | down 9.6% |
| orlando | total_inspections | 45.0 | 27.7 | down 38.4% |
| jacksonville | severity_sum | 11.0 | 237.4 | up 2058.2% |
| jacksonville | eor_count | 0.0 | 1.4 | new activity from a zero prior base |
| jacksonville | total_inspections | 3.0 | 22.1 | up 636.5% |
| florida-keys | severity_sum | 87.0 | 55.4 | down 36.3% |
| florida-keys | eor_count | 0.0 | 0.1 | new activity from a zero prior base |
| florida-keys | total_inspections | 10.0 | 6.9 | down 30.6% |
| treasure-coast | severity_sum | 74.0 | 47.3 | down 36.1% |
| treasure-coast | eor_count | 0.0 | 0.0 | new activity from a zero prior base |
| treasure-coast | total_inspections | 9.0 | 6.0 | down 33.5% |
| southwest-florida | severity_sum | 186.0 | 134.0 | down 27.9% |
| southwest-florida | eor_count | 2.0 | 0.8 | down 58.4% |
| southwest-florida | total_inspections | 44.0 | 23.2 | down 47.2% |
| north-florida | severity_sum | 69.0 | 61.5 | down 10.9% |
| north-florida | eor_count | 0.0 | 0.1 | new activity from a zero prior base |
| north-florida | total_inspections | 11.0 | 8.0 | down 27.1% |
Aggregate 90-day closure-pressure model
The model currently places 0 active licenses above the 50% analytical threshold. Top-decile precision is 28.7%. Named-business results are not published while identity, record completeness, threshold governance, evidence linking, and correction safeguards are under review.
High-Pressure Cities Ranking
North Miami Beach leads the city pressure ranking with 14 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records against 170 active-at-start records, a 8.2% delinquency-pressure read. Delinquency is a public-record regulatory state, not by itself proof a business has closed. Named city records include BODEGA BROS in North Miami Beach, and SUBWAY 40458 in North Miami Beach.
The city ranking is a pressure atlas, not a restaurant review. It tells the desk where DBPR license-delinquency concentration is dense enough to justify assignment work before the next six-month outlook.
Top 20 high-pressure cities
| 1 | North Miami Beach | 170 | 14 | 8.2% | 8.2% closure pressure; percentile 100.0 |
| 2 | Leesburg | 157 | 10 | 6.4% | 6.4% closure pressure; percentile 97.4 |
| 3 | Coral Springs | 305 | 18 | 5.9% | 5.9% closure pressure; percentile 94.9 |
| 4 | Ormond Beach | 221 | 11 | 5.0% | 5.0% closure pressure; percentile 92.3 |
| 5 | Deerfield Beach | 205 | 10 | 4.9% | 4.9% closure pressure; percentile 89.7 |
| 6 | Hollywood | 453 | 22 | 4.9% | 4.9% closure pressure; percentile 87.2 |
| 7 | Pembroke Pines | 381 | 18 | 4.7% | 4.7% closure pressure; percentile 84.6 |
| 8 | Miami Beach | 717 | 33 | 4.6% | 4.6% closure pressure; percentile 82.1 |
| 9 | Doral | 284 | 13 | 4.6% | 4.6% closure pressure; percentile 79.5 |
| 10 | New Port Richey | 234 | 10 | 4.3% | 4.3% closure pressure; percentile 76.9 |
| 11 | Coral Gables | 262 | 11 | 4.2% | 4.2% closure pressure; percentile 74.4 |
| 12 | Fort Lauderdale | 1105 | 46 | 4.2% | 4.2% closure pressure; percentile 71.8 |
| 13 | Boca Raton | 722 | 30 | 4.2% | 4.2% closure pressure; percentile 69.2 |
| 14 | Port St. Lucie | 462 | 19 | 4.1% | 4.1% closure pressure; percentile 66.7 |
| 15 | Winter Park | 283 | 11 | 3.9% | 3.9% closure pressure; percentile 64.1 |
| 16 | Melbourne | 490 | 18 | 3.7% | 3.7% closure pressure; percentile 61.5 |
| 17 | Brandon | 305 | 11 | 3.6% | 3.6% closure pressure; percentile 59.0 |
| 18 | Stuart | 301 | 10 | 3.3% | 3.3% closure pressure; percentile 56.4 |
| 19 | Vero Beach | 333 | 11 | 3.3% | 3.3% closure pressure; percentile 53.8 |
| 20 | Bradenton | 697 | 22 | 3.2% | 3.2% closure pressure; percentile 51.3 |
Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.
High-Attrition Neighborhoods
Doral in Doral leads the neighborhood pressure board with 11 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records against 194 active records, or 5.7%. Delinquency is a regulatory state, not confirmed closure. The dominant cuisine printed for that geography is Italian & Pizza.
Neighborhoods are where the model starts to look less like a spreadsheet and more like a real-estate story.
Top 30 high-attrition neighborhoods
| 1 | Doral | Doral | 194 | 11 | 5.7% | Italian & Pizza |
| 2 | Coral Springs | Coral Springs | 240 | 12 | 5.0% | Italian & Pizza |
| 3 | Pembroke Pines | Pembroke Pines | 312 | 14 | 4.5% | Fast Food |
| 4 | Hollywood | Hollywood | 286 | 11 | 3.8% | Italian & Pizza |
Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.
Cuisine-Level Forecast
The cuisine forecast is blunt: cuisines above the statewide median DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate of 3.1% are treated as shrink candidates unless operator churn is low enough to argue for stability. Donuts, Sandwiches, Fast Food, Ice Cream, and Desserts sit near the top of the pressure board in the current atlas.
Pizza remains structurally important even when it is not the monthly rate leader because the address-churn file keeps pulling it back into the story.
Cuisine-level six-month forecast
| Vietnamese | projected shrink | 10.2% | 0.0% | 10.2% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Korean | projected shrink | 8.2% | 0.0% | 8.2% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Indian | projected shrink | 7.3% | 0.0% | 7.3% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Caribbean | projected shrink | 7.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Mexican | projected shrink | 6.7% | 1.1% | 6.7% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 1.1% operator-churn rate |
| Greek | projected shrink | 5.8% | 0.0% | 5.8% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Peruvian | projected shrink | 5.8% | 0.0% | 5.8% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Japanese, Thai & Sushi | projected shrink | 5.7% | 0.7% | 5.7% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.7% operator-churn rate |
| Mediterranean | projected shrink | 5.2% | 0.0% | 5.2% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Bakery | projected shrink | 5.1% | 1.1% | 5.1% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 1.1% operator-churn rate |
| Asian | projected shrink | 4.9% | 0.0% | 4.9% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| French | projected shrink | 4.6% | 0.0% | 4.6% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Health Food | projected shrink | 4.0% | 1.8% | 4.0% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 1.8% operator-churn rate |
| Juice/Smoothie | projected shrink | 3.9% | 0.0% | 3.9% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Italian & Pizza | projected shrink | 3.6% | 0.5% | 3.6% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.5% operator-churn rate |
| Latin American | projected shrink | 3.6% | 1.5% | 3.6% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 1.5% operator-churn rate |
| Cafe | projected growth/stability | 3.0% | 0.3% | 3.0% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.3% operator-churn rate |
| Seafood | projected growth/stability | 2.9% | 0.8% | 2.9% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.8% operator-churn rate |
| Bar | projected growth/stability | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.9% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 1.5% operator-churn rate |
| Cuban | projected growth/stability | 2.9% | 1.1% | 2.9% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 1.1% operator-churn rate |
Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.
The 90-Day Watch List
Watch list pending — closure predictions not yet scored.
Six-Month Rear-View — Closed-Loop Model Validation
Of 2,075 licenses that moved to DBPR delinquent/inactive status (45 or 46) in the last six months, 0 currently score in the elevated or high ORSM band (0.0%). Delinquency is a public-record regulatory state, not by itself confirmation a business has closed. This is a rear-view validation: the same Phase 2 scoring that produces the forward-look above catches a material fraction of these delinquency events in its elevated+ bands. A higher catch rate means the model is surfacing real pre-delinquency signal; a lower rate tells the desk that delinquencies are dominantly structural (retirement, lease expiry, franchisor decisions) rather than inspection-pressure events — useful context for interpreting the forward-look.
No rear-view delinquency matches found — either no licenses went delinquent in the window or the model does not yet score delinquent licenses.
Editorial Verdict — Where to Look First
Most pressured metros: Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Fort Myers lead the elevated/high-concentration board. The editorial desk should assign coverage resources to these geographies first — they carry the densest stacks of individual licenses behaving outside their own historical norms, which is the Phase 2 definition of elevated regulatory pressure.
Most pressured cuisine cohorts: Vietnamese, Korean, Indian top the DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate board. These are the cohorts where the forward-look is least certain — when a cuisine is already losing units at an above-median rate, the Phase 2 per-license signals in that cuisine carry higher editorial weight because the structural backdrop supports the per-license read.
Highest-pressure cities: North Miami Beach, Leesburg, Coral Springs lead the statewide city ranking. The city pressure is a complement to the metro-level ORSM rollup — a city with high closure pressure AND a high ORSM elevated-band concentration is the strongest editorial signal in this brief.
Highest-attrition neighborhood: Doral in Doral with 11 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records against 194 active records (0.0%). Neighborhoods are where the model starts to look less like a spreadsheet and more like a real-estate story — the editorial desk should cross-reference the per-license table above against neighborhood-level delinquency to identify corridor-level patterns.
Methodology
Methodology: ORSM Phase 2 baseline produces per-license anomaly scores from operator-tuned weighted-max subscores (severity spike, cohort deviation, EOR history, ownership churn, license-expiry pressure, administrative distress, external closure signals). Bands: high (>0.75), elevated (0.50-0.75), moderate (0.25-0.50), low (<0.25). Scenario rollups aggregate band concentrations by metro county definitions. NIM forecast layer (NV-Tesseract) provides metro-level severity/EOR/inspection-volume projections when the forecast parquet is present. Closure predictions are Phase 3 logistic regression outputs, included here as complementary forward-look. All drivers are printed in plain English so the editorial desk can audit every call.
Data sources: Statistical risk modeling · ORSM Phase 2. Built from DBPR public inspection records, Florida Sunbiz business filings, and Foursquare/OSS location data. All counts are derived from public records — no estimates or projections unless labeled as forecast.